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Preventive Priorities Survey 2020

Título completo: Preventive Priorities Survey 2020

Autor: Paul B. Stares, General John W. Vessey

Fecha de publicación: Octubre 2019

Institución participante:  Council on Foreign Relations

Fragmento original: About the Preventive Priorities Survey

As the still-predominant global power with worldwide interests and commitments, the United States is more exposed to the risks of armed conflict and violent instability overseas than any other country. Preventing or managing such conflict before it causes a dangerous international crisis or humanitarian disaster that may require the use of force to protect U.S. interests and restore order—potentially at great cost—remains, therefore, a desirable foreign policy goal.

Accomplishing this task is easier said than done. U.S. policymakers are typically too consumed by the crisis of the day to devote much attention to what might happen in the future. Relying on early warning of the first signs of danger to trigger a timely response has proven, however, to be difficult. Typically, the direction of events is hard to discern. By the time there is greater clarity, it is often too late or more costly to defuse the crisis. Therefore, it is better to try to anticipate where conflict might erupt or escalate, particularly in places where U.S. interests are likely to be most at risk. In other words, policymakers should prioritize conflict prevention efforts given limited time and resources.