Título completo: Beyond Convergence, World Without Order

Fecha de publicación: Octubre de 2016 

Institución participante: Center for Complex Operations, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University Washington, D.C. 

Fragmento original:  Introduction

The world order built upon the Peace of Westphalia is faltering. State fragility or failure are endemic, with no fewer than one-third of the states in the United Nations earning a “high warning”—or worse—in the Fragile States Index, and an equal number suffering a decline in sustainability over the past decade.1 State weakness invites a range of illicit actors, including international terrorists, globally networked insurgents, and transnational criminal organizations (TCOs). The presence and operations of these entities keep states weak and incapable of effective governance, and limit the possibility of fruitful partnerships with the United States and its allies. Illicit organizations and their networks fuel corruption, eroding state legitimacy among the governed, and sowing doubt that the state is a genuine guardian of the public interest. These networks can penetrate the state, leading to state capture, and even criminal sovereignty.2 A growing number of weak and corrupt states is creating gaping holes in the global rule-based system of states that we depend on for our security and prosperity. Indeed, the chapters of this book suggest the emergence of a highly adaptive and parasitic alternative ecosystem, based on criminal commerce and extreme violence, with little regard for what we commonly conceive of as the public interest or the public good.

Título completo: Amenazas y conflictos híbridos: características distintivas, evolución en el tiempo y manifestaciones preponderantes

Fecha de publicación: diciembre de 2019

Institución participante: URVIO, Revista Latinoamericana de Estudios de Seguridad

Fragmento original: Resumen

Dentro del campo de análisis de la seguridad internacional contemporánea, ocupa un lugar de importancia la “hibridación” de los conflictos armados y las amenazas transnacionales, cuestión que demanda la constante atención de los especialistas. El presente artículo aborda tanto la amenaza que constituye un actor que plantea modos de combate híbridos como la resultante de la combinación sinérgica de al menos dos amenazas diferentes, que pueden darse de manera autónoma. Se presenta un panorama actualizado sobre el tema, que refleja su estado del arte, incluyendo versiones ajenas a Occidente. El primer objetivo consiste en establecer dónde radica la singularidad de los conflictos híbridos respecto a las formas precedentes de contienda armada, subsanando así los inconvenientes que plantean tanto un empleo poco riguroso de los términos como cierta proliferación semántica. El segundo objetivo, complementario del primero, apunta a identificar los formatos más relevantes que adoptan las amenazas híbridas en la actualidad. Las conclusiones indican si se registra la presencia de conflictos y amenazas híbridas en América Latina, y en caso afirmativo, cuáles son sus manifestaciones, así como el grado de preparación de los Estados frente a ellas.

Título completo: Preventive Priorities Survey 2020

Autor: Paul B. Stares, General John W. Vessey

Fecha de publicación: Octubre 2019

Institución participante:  Council on Foreign Relations

Fragmento original: About the Preventive Priorities Survey

As the still-predominant global power with worldwide interests and commitments, the United States is more exposed to the risks of armed conflict and violent instability overseas than any other country. Preventing or managing such conflict before it causes a dangerous international crisis or humanitarian disaster that may require the use of force to protect U.S. interests and restore order—potentially at great cost—remains, therefore, a desirable foreign policy goal.

Accomplishing this task is easier said than done. U.S. policymakers are typically too consumed by the crisis of the day to devote much attention to what might happen in the future. Relying on early warning of the first signs of danger to trigger a timely response has proven, however, to be difficult. Typically, the direction of events is hard to discern. By the time there is greater clarity, it is often too late or more costly to defuse the crisis. Therefore, it is better to try to anticipate where conflict might erupt or escalate, particularly in places where U.S. interests are likely to be most at risk. In other words, policymakers should prioritize conflict prevention efforts given limited time and resources. 

Fecha de publicación:  October 2019 

Institución participante: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House

Fragmento original: In the run-up to the UN’s 75th anniversary and almost a year after his death, Chatham House and the United Nations Association – UK (UNA-UK) held a two-day conference to explore Kofi Annan’s legacy in the context of the current period of global uncertainty.

Título completo: Revista de Relaciones Internacionales, Estrategia y Seguridad

Fecha de publicación: 2018

Institución participante: Universidad Militar Nueva Granada

Fragmento original: En esta edición el lector encontrará diez artículos distribuidos en dos secciones temáticas: Cooperación e integración internacional asimétrica en asuntos de seguridad, estrategia y comercio y Cultura global en relaciones internacionales. 

Título completo: The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition

Fecha de publicación: 2019

Institución participante: World Economic Forum

Fragmento original: The information in this report, or on which this report is based, has been obtained from sources that the authors believe to be reliable and accurate. However, it has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from third parties. In addition, the statements in this report may provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or a current fact. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are not exhaustive. The companies contributing to this report operate in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these statements. The companies contributing to this report undertake no obligation to publicly revise or update any statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise and they shall in no event be liable for any loss or damage arising in connection with the use of the information in this report.

Autores: 
Luis Almagro
Peter Schechter
R. Evan Ellis
Juan S. Gonzalez
Leonardo Coutinho
Mary Speck
David E. Spencer
Douglas Farah and Kathryn Babineau
Ivan Briscoe and David Keseberg
Celina B. Realuyo

Fecha de publicación:
2019

Institución participante:
National Defense University

Fragmento original: 

Defending Democracy and Human Rights in the Western Hemisphere
By Luis Almagro

One glimpse at the covers of the main news and political magazines in recent years is often enough to discern a common theme. These publications often display fatalist titles such as “Democracy in Demise,” “Democracy in Crisis,” “Democracy in Peril,” or maybe the alternative favorite, “Authoritarianism on the Rise.” First the 2008 financial crisis, then the results of certain elections worldwide led many to question the future of liberal democracy. In Latin America, an additional series of events such as the “Operacão Lava Jato” (Operation Car Wash) corruption scandal that put many high-level elected and public officials in jail, paved the way for fed-up citizens to rebel against their governments in the streets and in the polls, ousting traditional parties and political elites from power

The world has moved into a new and unsettling geopolitical phase. Multilateral rules-based approaches have been fraying. Re-establishing the state as the primary locus of power and legitimacy has become an increasingly attractive strategy for many countries, but one that leaves many smaller states squeezed as the geopolitical sands shift. There is currently no sign that norms and institutions exist towards which the world’s major powers might converge. This creates new risks and uncertainties: rising military tensions, economic and commercial disruptions, and destabilizing feedback loops between changing global conditions and countries’ domestic political conditions. International relations now play out in increasingly diverse ways.

Informe Global de Riesgos 2018

Por: Farid Kahhat, Reforma, 18 de Diciembre, 2010

¿Cómo se garantiza en una democracia representativa que el poder ejecutivo se comporte de acuerdo a la Constitución y las leyes? A través de dos medios fundamentales: el primero es la existencia de entidades capaces de fiscalizar y contrapesar el poder del Ejecutivo (desde el Congreso hasta la prensa independiente). El segundo es la sanción que por los abusos de poder le podría infligir el electorado en las urnas. A su vez para que esos medios funcionen, se requiere que la información relevante sobre la conducta del Ejecutivo sea de dominio público. El problema con eso es que puede existir información que por razones legítimas (como la seguridad nacional), cabría mantener en reserva. Lo cual lleva a formular una pregunta medular: ¿Quién y bajo qué criterios define cuál es esa información y cómo debe ser procesada?

Title: Understanding Peace-Building in Colombia. A Framing Paper

Source: World Bank Group and Korea Trust Found

Place and date: Bogota DC, November 18, 2015

Summary: This note presents a framework for understanding key aspects of the peace-building exercise in Colombia in the context of societal transition from armed conflict to sustainable peace. The focus of the framework developed in this note is on the reintegration of ex- combatants in Colombia assuming that a negotiated outcome in Havana will set overall parameters for aspects of Colombia’s war-to-peace transitions amenable to joint commitments by the Government and the FARC.